The Importance of Down Ballot Races Part III:
An Overview Of The Governor's Races
Feel free to check the past Biden Era archives and follow the editions to come in the Trump Era on Substack, Medium, and LinkedIn, including those on the 2024 Autopsy, Bench-Building, DOGE News, Project 2025 Authoritarianism, Progressive Populism, and more (First Come, First Serve!).
On this Memorial Day, let’s remember and honor those who made the sacrifice and particularly those who made the ultimate sacrifice.
Before we start, as usual, let me recap some of the big headlines or takes of importance from this weekend:
First off, a warning from someone who lived in Latin American about the erosion of democracy in the United States being very reminiscent of Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela or 1970s Argentina. Thank you Marilyn Kunce.
My political acquaintance Faiz Shakir writes about how a party message is far more important than whether the DNC pays influencers to combat Joe Rogan and other MAGA podcasters. Great job Faiz.
Party strategist Meghan Hays says Democrats “forgot how to talk to normal people” beyond academia and elitist language. Does she have a point?
No surprise, billionaires set to profit even more from the Trump Tax Cuts 2.0, including the top 100 donors in this country who gave Republicans 3x more in cash than Democrats. In this country, we have top-down corporate socialism for the wealthy and rugged individualism for everyone else.
The DOGE federal worker layoffs not only impact paychecks. They also result in canceled healthcare coverage, unemployment insurance, pension guarantees, and other benefits.
MAHA cuts funding to nutrition research at Harvard University.
The mental health crisis is real and never more important than now, as former Congressman Patrick J. Kennedy said this past weekend on Meet the Press.
Oklahoma is now requiring schools to teach students that the 2020 election was stolen. Like George Orwell once said, “the past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth.”
The GOP wages war on the Government Accountability Office.
The Democratic Party gerontocracy problem has really come home to roost in recent weeks.
Similarly, Donald Trump’s meandering, incoherent, and low-key West Point commencement speech reeks of the aging people say they witnessed with Joe Biden. I have to say too: Donald Trump of 2025 is not the Donald Trump with 2016 or even 2020 vitality and energy. Our President is an ailing, aging old man.
Meanwhile, as Jake Tapper continues his personal anti-Biden crusade and Trump appeasement, he just so happens to conveniently leave out of his book one of Biden’s Cabinet members from the melodrama, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo; even though other RI politicians are mentioned, as Boston Globe columnist Dan McGowan writes in a recent column. It is a sad commentary on how media figures like Tapper still cover for pro-corporate Democratic politicians.
Now we go to covering the Governor’s races. For those unfamiliar with this format, Parts I and II outlined in detail the importance of congressional races and state-level offices in general for the progressive movement and Democrats in 2026.
Whatever may be said about the federal government, the states are also a vital line of defense against the Trump agenda, and to lift working families up. Now, whether Democrats in those states used that power wisely is another question. As the American Prospect covered earlier this year, many blue states with Democratic trifectas turned out to be not very efficient in passing pro-working class policies, even those agenda items Joe Biden implemented as President.
To cite just a few eye-catching examples from them, let’s start with Delaware. Delaware continues to cut taxes and lighten regulations for corporations (one of the smallest states in the Union, the home of Biden has more businesses than people). The state legislature went as far as begging Tesla to keep some of its regional headquarters operational.
Colorado’s legislature did a lot of good work, most of which was vetoed by the pro-charter school Governor, including anti-wage theft protections, a ban on uncertified HVAC contractors for public schools, and a prohibition on employers from disciplining workers who refuse to listen to anti-union political or religious propaganda.
California focuses routinely on satisfying Big Tech companies in the state with corporate welfare and tax cuts. And its Governor, Gavin Newsom, a longtime favorite of the real estate development industry, notably vetoed and pared down a number of laws designed to help labor unions, including for Teamster regulations on driverless trucks, by rejecting unemployment insurance for striking workers, and by failing to stand with Starbucks employees and domestic workers.
Michigan was on a roll, as I mentioned more than a year ago, but its session ended in a very dysfunctional manner, with infighting preventing ethics reform from passing, a massive giving away of corporate subsidies to companies like Google, Microsoft, Ford, and General Motors, a rollback of a minimum wage increase for tipped workers, and multiple vetoes to the expansion of the state’s unemployment system.
And, in Rhode Island, many bills fail to pass because of conservative leadership on Smith Hill; everything from raising taxes on the wealthy after cutting taxes astronomically since 2006, to payday lending regulations, tipped minimum wage increases, increasing Medicaid reimbursement rates, expanding pre-kindergarten, even bolder climate action, and universal school meals.
So yes, Democrats also have to use their power when in office. That is a challenge the party will have to contend with on the state level leading up to 2026.
Even with that, there are promising leaders out there with the potential to do what some of these states above have failed to do.
Democrats are on defense theoretically in 2026 because they have control of 4 of the 7 battleground states up for grabs, plus Kansas. Without going through every state (for now), let’s recap the most important races and where they stand:
Iowa: With State Auditor Rob Sand’s entry and a wide open GOP primary field, the Cook Political Report moved Iowa’s gubernatorial race from Solid Republican to Lean Republican. No question Auditor Sand’s resume and statewide brand helped out in that regard.
Ohio: If there is one Republican who could lose Ohio, it could be Vivek Ramaswamy. But Democrats still need a candidate to raise their name recognition, which is the challenge for someone like Dr. Amy Acton, the most prominent challenger to run.
Pennsylvania: The quintessential battleground state perhaps. Mainly, the question is whether the Commonwealth reelects Governor Josh Shapiro, someone almost universally regarded as a 2028 presidential contender should he win reelection.
Michigan: I mentioned Michigan’s open seat in Part II, so no need to repeat myself there.
Wisconsin: While Governor Tony Evers has not announced whether he is running for reelection, almost all the indications are that he comes out on top as the favorite over any Republican contender, with the real possibility that he can finally govern with a Democratic trifecta if the midterms go well.
Minnesota: Governor Tim Walz, another possible 2028 contender, did not announce a run for reelection yet, though doing so would obviously be a boon for down ballot Democrats hoping to retake full control of its state legislature again in 2026.
Illinois: Governor JB Pritzker, another potential 2028 presidential contender, has not said whether he will seek reelection.
Nevada: Attorney General Aaron Ford reportedly is planning to run against formidable Nevada GOP incumbent and Trump ally Joe Lombardo in what could be a major flip for Democrats.
Arizona: Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs, very vulnerable in a state Trump won by more than 5 points, could see a crowded GOP primary that includes Congressman Andy Biggs and former 2022 candidate Karrin Taylor Robson (both of whom Trump co-endorsed).
New Mexico: New Mexico could make history with the first Native American Governor in the US via former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the largely undisputed frontrunner so far.
Colorado: A wide open primary field developing on the Democratic side, including US Senator Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser. This race is a big deal as outlined by the earlier section of this article.
Georgia: A wide open primary field developing on the Republican side too. Meanwhile, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms just announced her campaign. Congresswoman Lucy McBath dropped out after a family cancer diagnosis, while Daniel Blackman remains coy on his intentions.
New York: Kathy Hochul stands statistically tied in polling against potential GOP candidates Elise Stefanik and Mike Lawler, with a majority of NY voters desiring someone other than Hochul to be Governor for 4 more years. Run Antonio Delgado!
New Hampshire: With Kelly Ayotte’s high approval ratings (for now), no Democrat publicly announced his or her intention to run against her. Maybe a chance to have a fresh new voice in the form of outside blogger and renowned litigator Andru Volinsky.
Vermont: Rumor is popular moderate Republican Phil Scott might finally retire in 2026. While State Treasurer Michael Pieciak is favored to run on the Democratic side, the question is does the Progressive Party plan to run a candidate of its own after the VT Dems’ 2024 state legislative disaster at the ballot box?
Rhode Island: Governor Dan McKee remains quite unpopular. But with CVS’s Helena Foulkes tainted by her company’s role in the opioid epidemic, the question is who else stands a real chance of beating McKee. Attorney General Peter Neronha? Speaker Joseph Shekarchi? Secretary Gregg Amore? RI progressives hope for another viable alternative to McKee-Foulkes.
California: Similarly another wide open field. Might be a dozen or so prominent candidates running for Governor on both sides for the March jungle primary, including Congresswoman Katie Porter and former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra.
That closes off the gubernatorial recap for now.